A Conservative minority government with concessions given to them by the Lib Dems, to the point where the third largest party will abstain from contentious bills and be given a free whip on workable bills. The reason for this is multiple. The Tories and the Lib Dems are close on some issues, but very few, ideologically - most lib Dems today are centre left, ex Labour voters who are neither that far left or right to agree with the politics of the two main parties. The Lib Dems wants electoral reform, the Tories would concede to Parliamentary Reform. The Lib Dems are pro Europe, the Tories have become increasingly Euro-sceptic and support a lesser role in the EEC. Many Lib Dem MPs and members would find the idea of a coalition between the two parties abhorrent and it would struggle to get past them.
However, while the Lib Dems can be seen as king makers, getting into bed with Labour and propping up a coalition of defeated parties wouldn't sit well with a lot of voters, even those who voted for both parties; but, the two parties and the others they would have to embrace did poll over 50% of the popular vote - so, technically, with voting reform an issue, is any one a loser?
The Lib Dems could possible form an alliance with Labour, but that would require a new leader - therefore a new PM - and would the country accept another PM who wasn't elected as PM? For that to work there would have to be an agreement that the parties' would work together for a period of time until a referendum on electoral reform is held and then once that is decided, go back to the country again. Possibly an 18 month to two year government.
The problem with every scenario is that the Lib Dems could lose badly if it goes wrong. They could be seen as supporting a party diametrically opposed to them - unpopular amongst voters and potential voters. They would be seen as supporting the losing party if they went in that direction. However, they stand to be shafted by Tory or Labour if they go into a fully-fledged partnership. The situation for Nick Clegg isn't simple - step one way oblivion, step the other and more oblivion. He walks a thin line and his best policy would be to let someone else screw up and capitalise on that. Issue a message when it all starts to go horribly wrong for the party in power that the country had its chance for change and it chose not to, they've been given another chance and this could be the last time they will.
Personally? I grew to like the idea of a hung parliament. I felt it represented a turning point in British politics; the opportunity for more debate on why the country didn't elect a clear winner. However, it has been overshadowed by the impossible deals circulating everywhere. I think the Lib Dems ought to sit back and allow the Tory's to form a minority government. I refer my loyal readers to http://independentchoices.blogspot.com/2010_02_01_archive.html it is the entry I made at the end of February and refers to Marina Hyde's Guardian column advocating weak government. I'm believe that the Conservatives won the most seats and should be given a chance to govern. They are now in the position where they have to be very careful about every decision they take; they have to think about every reaction from the MPs they will rely on to abstain. They will have to do something the Tory's need to learn about - compromise. We need a fairer country, with less cuts and more investment. We need others to take responsibility for the debt - it wasn't the people of the country who caused it, therefore we shouldn't be made to pay for it. Perhaps it might work and if it doesn't we'll can all go back and try again.
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