It's all over the news this morning; the higher than expected level of inflation. It wouldn't be so bad if it took into account such things as the higher than inflation rise on public transport, the spiralling out of control cost of fuel and, of course, the 2½% rise in VAT. The chances are that the current 3.7% rate will bust through the 4% barrier very soon and the hoped for rate of 2.3% will be a distant and unobtainable memory.
But remember, we're all in this together and that includes the private sector who are supposed to be the the chaps who are going to take up the slack and employ the majority of the public sector workers who are going to lose their jobs this year. Of course, the private sector needs conditions to be right for them to expand and at the moment none of them are doing so and in fact many of them are facing having to make cuts because of the higher cost of operating.
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The Oldham east and Saddleworth by election raised a few eyebrows. The two biggest were that the LibDems share of the vote increased by 0.3%, not much, but approximately 99.7% more than expected. The second was that the Tory vote dropped by 7,000. Not unexpected considering they a) threw their weight behind not stopping the Lib Dems and b) they were in a traditionally Tory hating suburb. The incredible thing about it was that voters seemed to be saying they don't blame the Liberals for the impending mess.
In many ways this is a good thing, because the sad truth up to that by election was that the Tory's had managed to totally screw Clegg's Crew by doing nothing more than offering them a power share.
8 months into the coalition and things were looking grim for the Liberals and it had got to a stage where it seemed the Tories could do anything and the Libs would have to go along with it because their popularity rating was hovering in the minus figures. Damned if you do, damned if you don't seemed to be the best way of describing them. Popularity at an all-time low, Nick Clegg less popular than Maggie Thatcher and the Tories dismantling the country with no objections from the party, all because dismantling the coalition would end the Liberals chances of governing again until 2200 when everyone's great great grandchildren had forgotten what they did in 2010. It seemed that the Liberals were given a choice - do as we say or be out of work very soon. The by election seemed to suggest that in Liberal areas, the Liberal vote would remain strong and this must be a massive worry for Tories in Liberal marginals, because they're now going to be realising that if things don't get better, it's them who will get the blame come the next General Election.
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Speaking of General Elections... I think the AV referendum in May is going to be won by the No voters and that is going to put the relationship between Cameron and Clegg at a crossroads. If the Barnsley by election is won, as expected, by the Labour candidate and the Liberals come second then the message sent out could be one that suggests it's time for the Liberals to jump ship if the AV referendum goes against them. Their members and the country as a whole would feel more comfortable with them tempering Labour than them bolstering the Tories.
My confidence is not that strong on this forecast, but I can't help thinking we might be back at the polls by September. Cameron may be left with a minority government if the Libs jump ship and the first major defeat will call a Vote of Confidence motion, which, regardless of public opinion and most of us not wanting another election, will end up with a General Election. Should that happen and we end up with a hung parliament again - quite possible, but with the current situation slightly reversed with the Labour party having the most seats but not an overall majority - then the Liberals would be well placed to form another coalition and remain in power.
The reason I think the Tories might be running scared is that even lifelong supporters of theirs are voicing concerns about the speed and ruthlessness of the cuts and changes they are trying to push through. Even grass roots Tories would like there to be a semblance of Britain left in a few years.
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