I hope Britain gets what it deserves. Whether that is a
better country or one facing a bleak future is where hope becomes a scary
thing.
Part of me hopes that whatever the outcome of the General
Election, people are happy with it, because if they’re not the following five
years could spell the end of life as we know it today (and, really, I’m not
being melodramatic, £12billion of planned cuts proves that).
Hope is full of fear and trepidation because, as we’ve seen
for the last five years, one man’s happiness has far-reaching consequences –
the divide between the haves and have nots has widened – officially. The
‘economic resurgence’ that Osborne assures us is around the corner, but not
echoed by others, is highly selective with its bonuses – there are far more
people not feeling this economic optimism
and it’s being reflected in the polls.
The polls hold hope for just about everyone that isn’t the
usual three. Green, UKIP and especially the SNP have benefited from more
coverage and it will be reflected in results. The thing is, forget the SNP because
there is a certain fait accompli about them, the Greens and the UKIP are going
to do a lot more damage than people, pollsters and politicians believe…
I’ll tell you what I hope more than anything – I hope the
mood of the nation hasn’t been misrepresented by the press because I have a
horrible gnawing feeling that the turn out could be higher than expected and many
voters are going to confound the experts.
The election no longer appears to be about policies and
visions, it appears to have become a kind of weird Presidential Race, where the
leaders of parties dictate the amount of support they will get.
Nigel Farage is many things, most of them arguably
libellous, but he said something petulant recently that had more than a ring of
truth about it. While accusing the BBC of bias and being left wing, he made the
comment that people lie. Activists and militants – left or right – will
manipulate procedures to get onto debate audiences, manipulate opinion, etc.
Extrapolate that to polls and it is completely feasible that polls can have a
greater degree of inaccuracy than offered, or even that the majority of people
polled are already decided and might not reflect what the rest of their street
feel or intend to vote.
All polls really do is give hope.
I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time over the last few
months subliminally polling people. The election is a talking point and during
an average day I will talk to a reasonably substantial number of people – dog
walkers, people queuing at the post office, chatting to neighbours, in the pub
and I’m building a picture in my head that should have Sally Keeble, Michael
Ellis, whoever the Lib Dem candidate is and even Tony Clarke worrying, because
if I had to put my poll of about 30 people quizzed in the last week up as any
kind of reflection of the mood in Northampton, then Tom Rubython* – the UKIP
candidate – is going to have a devastating effect on the vote in this seat.
Let’s put it this way – I have spoken to four people who say
they’re voting Green (will make Tony happy); one Labour and the rest have
declared for UKIP …
I sincerely hope this isn’t reflected in the election
because UKIP could really decimate British politics yet barely win a seat. The
effect of them, and to a lesser extent the Greens, on voters could see safe
seats overturned and reopen the debate for Proportional Representation,
especially if we end up with a minority government with 29% of the vote.
What I want to know is how people who don’t read newspapers,
watch the news or politics programmes can form their opinions.
Take one of my neighbours. He has struggled with a damaged
foot for the last four years and today he has it amputated. He is a
self-proclaimed anti-Conservative. He hates them and all they stand for. He
wants a party that will look after the NHS and gives the young a fair crack. So
far so good. But he also wants less foreigners, because ‘they’ve caused so much
damage to this once great country’. He hasn’t got a clue about the economy; he
doesn’t want to know anything except how the NHS is going to be saved and who
is going to get rid of all these Eastern Europeans and give their jobs back to
people like him who can’t get jobs now because… He wouldn’t vote for that
Miliband bloke because he’s a bloody immigrant himself and he hates Cameron
because he’s a toff and doesn’t understand the common man. But Nigel? He likes
Nigel. Nigel has his vote, even if it isn’t Nigel who is standing in
Northampton.
Nigel wants to privatise the NHS, I protest. What if he
does, at least it will be British. There was no point in arguing with him because like me, his
mind is made up.
When I walk the dogs, I meet all manner of people and
unusually politics between ordinary people seems to have become acceptable, almost
an ice-breaker now and once where people would keep their voting intentions to
themselves, in 2015 they don’t care if you know their fascist tendencies.
Did they watch the debates? No.
Do they read a paper? No.
Watch the news? No.
What is it about Nigel that they like? He’s a man of the people. He understands the common people. He’s English.
You suggest to these people that he’s ex-Tory and that seems to galvanise him and them.
You struggle to debate with them because they don’t really understand the politics.
Nigel drinks beer, smokes fags, belittles the establishment – he’s everyman.
Watch the news? No.
What is it about Nigel that they like? He’s a man of the people. He understands the common people. He’s English.
You suggest to these people that he’s ex-Tory and that seems to galvanise him and them.
You struggle to debate with them because they don’t really understand the politics.
Nigel drinks beer, smokes fags, belittles the establishment – he’s everyman.
UKIP is Nigel Farage. People aren’t voting for their local
candidate, they’re voting for Farage. If you abolished the monarchy tomorrow
and had a presidential election – he would win because everyone would think it
was him against the establishment; we all
only say these horrid things about him because we’re scared of him.**
If ever there was grounds for a political fait accompli,
Farage holds the key to it. What will the pundits and politicians make of it if
UKIP split the vote so much that even safe seats suddenly hang in the balance.
The ignorant – and I mean that respectfully – view UKIP as an alternative to
Labour and its continued march to the centre ground; the wilful view UKIP as an
opportunity. For racists, xenophobes and people who view the election as a
single issue – immigration – UKIP is a shoo-in, because they’d be even more radical
than the Tories.
If this scenario could
happen, it should also worry the Conservatives more than Labour, because many
Labour strongholds are considerably more UKIP proof than Tory’s would like
their safe seats to be. UKIP works on the best way to sell your product – the
oldest way – word of mouth; if you are not of a particular political leaning –
one of the majority of floating or non-voters – then the passion generated by Farage’s
ability to appeal to the silent masses gets their vote.
I see casual racism all the time, even if people aren’t even
aware of it and something about the way UKIP has been legitimised by the press
has made this extreme Nationalist party considerably much more palatable than
the BNP, despite having incredibly similar manifestos. Oh and Nigel isn’t a
violent thug.
I’d talk about UKIP policies but frankly they could have
published The Beano and the number of people who intend to vote for them might
have increased. This is the crazy thing – their ticket is immigration and
pulling out of Europe because that’s the cause of the immigrants. No one voting
for him gives a hoot about whatever they plan to do with the NHS, the economy,
education, anything else, because he will deal with the only real problem
they see. The root of all the other problems – get rid of them there immigrants
and problem solved.
It is horrible simplistic politics and the damage it could
do is unthinkable. There has never, especially in Northampton North, been a
better time for tactical voting. I have the greatest respect for Tony Clarke,
he’s an old friend and he should be involved in frontline politics; but he
could split the Labour vote as severely as UKIP is going to dent Michael Ellis.
David Cameron is hoping for a 1992 moment and the floaters will put their Xs
next to a blue flag, because that’s what British voters have a tendency to do,
but equally many of them might see UKIP as the best form of protest vote they can
register and that throws this seat and many others into jeopardy.
Polls suggest a hung parliament with blue and red
neck-and-neck on seats and the smaller parties holding the cards. It is quite
reasonable to suggest that both the major parties could end up with as many as
20 less seats than forecast and with the Lib Dems facing a real wipe out, UKIP
could become the third party by default and have as much bargaining power as
the SNP.
Can you imagine that? We get an unexpected 65-70% turn out
and pretty much 50% of voter go for a right wing party and 50% for a left wing
one. What kind of country - what kind of future - would be have when half the
electorate will have politics that is an absolute anathema to them? Especially
if two extremes can form a government.
Tories will have it that any Labour government, whether
propped up by someone else will destroy everything they’ve done. Everyone else
will have it that another Conservative-led government would continue to destroy
everything else they haven’t already destroyed and if you are poor or disabled
you might as well kill yourself now.
Personally, I’d rather live in a society that views people
as equals rather than one that has steadfastly and openly discriminated against
the poor and disabled while making their billionaire friends richer.
** Oh and If you can think of a way to give an easy example of
how to dissuade people from voting for a single issue that doesn’t really affect them, when they
steadfastly believe that any dissenting voice is through fear and not through
logic, I’d be pleased to hear it. I hope you can, because I hope I’m wrong
about my UKIP fears.
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